AvonVilla reviewed Overshoot by William R. Catton
We were doomed in 1980, and we're doomed now
4 stars
The basic premise of this book is that technology has allowed the human population of planet Earth to grow to an unsustainable level, and when the resources used to enable that technology are exhausted, we are going to experience a catastrophic crash.
The book was published in 1980, and it is peppered with references to the oil crises of the 70s. That was when people in America and similar countries got their first taste of what would happen to their lives if the oil tap got turned off. Since then, as we now know, we've been able to keep the oil flowing. But the overshoot hypothesis remains in place, because the oil and other resources WILL run out at some stage, and when they do we will have made the problem even worse because we now have 8 billion people instead of 4 billion. To feed them all, we still …
The basic premise of this book is that technology has allowed the human population of planet Earth to grow to an unsustainable level, and when the resources used to enable that technology are exhausted, we are going to experience a catastrophic crash.
The book was published in 1980, and it is peppered with references to the oil crises of the 70s. That was when people in America and similar countries got their first taste of what would happen to their lives if the oil tap got turned off. Since then, as we now know, we've been able to keep the oil flowing. But the overshoot hypothesis remains in place, because the oil and other resources WILL run out at some stage, and when they do we will have made the problem even worse because we now have 8 billion people instead of 4 billion. To feed them all, we still need coal, gas and oil to fuel the tractors and the cargo ships and to manufacture the fertilisers. When we can't use fossil fuels, it will be all over.
A striking thing about the book is the way it talks about the catastrophe in the past tense. The point of no return happened some time in the past. Maybe we should have known all along that the coal, oil and gas would run out, even as we began exploiting these resources, around the time the steam engine was invented. But we acted as if they were inexhaustible, and the human population doubled and kept on doubling.
Even now, when awareness of environmental issues is peaking, we still drill and mine and burn wantonly. Our populations and economies have grown beyond the ability of earth to permanently support such numbers and such lifestyles. Our attempts to avert the looming crash have mostly added to the problem. We end up using even more of our limited resources as we try to replace the ones that are closer to exhaustion. This includes so-called renewable energy.
Beneath it all, the pressures to maintain the extraction and thus the destruction of resources is fueling conflict and stress, even though we typically blame other factors, like politics, the economy, or various scapegoats.
In 1980 awareness of climate change was not as great as it is now. William Catton refers to it, and I have read elsewhere that his later work addresses it in more detail. Along with references to the Carter administration and its energy policies, the climate omissions date "Overshoot" somewhat, but the book is no worse for it. It's amazing how relevant it remains today. Catton's analysis of the historical failures to address ecological reality applies to the Reagan years which were to follow. Trump's exhortation to "drill baby drill" and "make America great again" are also consistent with Catton's revelations of how humans are in denial about the cliff edge we are hurtling towards with no brakes.
Be ready for some sociological and somewhat academic writing which drags at times. But stick with it at least until the penultimate chapter, where Catton turns his attention to politics and less technical issues. The book worked on me. I've always been environmentally minded, but reading "Overshoot" is a radical consciousness-raising experience