In 2022, I predicted (and emailed my MP to encourage them to do something) that if we let #Russia get away with their #war in #Ukraine, they would get away with it without any penalties, and they would end up partitioning Ukraine with a Russian-controlled sector and a relatively lawless rump where Russia would block any proper democracy or anticorruption moves. Europe (including the UK) would have to pay to rebuild Ukraine, and it would become a hiding place for anti-Western groups.
Jon PENNYCOOK replied to Jon PENNYCOOK's status
Unfortunately, some European politicians were happy to support, or at least not oppose, #Putin (many #Conservative politicians in the #UK were happy to support Putin on social media prior to 2022), and some were unhappy about paying for European defence.
Now we have a situation where two ethnonationalist politicians, one of whom is a business person and is more interested in being seen to succeed at something rather than doing the right thing, and the other denies that Ukrainians are real.
Jon PENNYCOOK replied to Jon PENNYCOOK's status
Once #Trump has capitulated to #Putin over #Ukraine, what comes next? #China wants to invade #Taiwan, so will #Russia provide military support (probably not, I expect ordinary Russians would object) or will Russia invade somewhere in #Europe to provide a distraction, knowing that #USA will tell Europe to sort out their own problems?